Long-Term Market Research
Institutional-grade research and data for investors committed to multi-decade time horizons. Because the most powerful force in investing is patience.
Markets do not move randomly over long periods. They alternate between extended secular bull and bear phases — lasting 13 to 20 years — driven by the interplay of valuations, earnings growth, and investor psychology. Understanding these cycles is foundational to long-term investment thinking.
Read analysis →Dividends have historically accounted for roughly 40% of the S&P 500's total return, yet they are systematically ignored by investors focused on price appreciation. A quantitative case for treating income as a compounding engine.
Read analysis →The Shiller Cyclically-Adjusted P/E ratio is the most empirically reliable valuation metric for predicting long-term equity returns. An analysis of its history, predictive power, and current implications.
Read analysis →| Decade | Price Return | Total Return |
|---|---|---|
| 1950s | +13.6% | +19.4% |
| 1960s | +4.4% | +7.8% |
| 1970s | +1.6% | +5.9% |
| 1980s | +12.6% | +17.5% |
| 1990s | +15.3% | +18.2% |
| 2000s | −2.7% | −1.0% |
| 2010s | +11.2% | +13.6% |
| Holding Period | % Positive | Worst Period |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Year | 73% | −43.3% |
| 3 Years | 84% | −27.8% |
| 5 Years | 88% | −12.5% |
| 10 Years | 95% | −4.9% |
| 15 Years | 99% | −1.2% |
| 20 Years | 100% | +3.1% |
| 30 Years | 100% | +8.4% |